When the participants for Super Bowl LX are determined, it will have a lot to do with quarterback play coming down the stretch in the regular season as well as the playoffs.
And guess what? The resurgent 49ers are right in the mix. The 49ers are always better offensively executing bootlegs and rollouts, and Brock Purdy has been very good the last two games against Cleveland and Tennessee.
Neither are world beaters, although the Browns’ defense is formidable. We’ll find out more whether we’ll get the recent vintage of Purdy or the shaky one that played against Carolina over the last three games of the season.
If Purdy is as good as he’s looked of late, the 49ers have a shot, and that’s even without edge rusher Nick Bosa and linebacker Fred Warner.
There will be no Patrick Mahomes playoff magic this year and maybe even next year after a torn ACL and a 6-8 record for the Chiefs. Lamar Jackson of Baltimore is on the outside looking in.
Here’s how I see the viability of quarterbacks currently in playoff position to lead a team to Santa Clara on Feb. 8:
1. Josh Allen, Buffalo: His value goes well beyond the statistical realm, although his stats are still pretty good. Making a run at a second consecutive Most Valuable Player award.
2. Matthew Stafford, L.A. Rams: The leader in the clubhouse for MVP, Stafford can break the Rams’ tie with Hall of Famer Kurt Warner for Super Bowl wins. The best pure passer in football.
3. Brock Purdy, 49ers: Yes, his supporting cast matters. And the supporting cast has been very good of late. Almost as good as Purdy himself. And if something happens to Purdy, the 49ers have the best backup in Mac Jones.
4. Sam Darnold, Seattle: Has a lot to prove over the last three games as well as the playoffs after his postseason meltdown with Minnesota last year.
5. Drake Maye, New England: Outplayed by Josh Allen in loss to Bills but overall a very good second year against suspect opposition.
6. Justin Herbert, L.A. Chargers: Left wrist injury is a concern. The Chargers need the option of putting Herbert under center on occasion.
7. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville: Has been very good of late and a comeback playoff win over the Chargers in his back pocket.
8. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay: Even with the Bucs stumbling of late, Mayfield’s anticipatory throwing ability and swag make him a threat to take over a game.
9. Bo Nix, Denver: Running ability and a Jim McMahon approach to football make him worth a watch with this team.
10. C.J. Stroud, Houston: Still one of the top throwers in the NFL and can lead a defensive-minded team for a deep run.
11. Jordan Love, Green Bay: Threw seven touchdown passes against Detroit and Chicago before a loss to Denver with two interceptions.
12 Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh: Not what he once was, but at times still throws the ball like Aaron Rodgers.
13. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia: It pains me to list him this low, but that’s how bad his last game was for the Eagles. Who knows? Could be brilliant again in the playoffs.
14. Caleb Williams, Chicago: Extremely dangerous playmaker on the perimeter, not so much in the pocket. Playoff teams will look to keep him there.
On the fringe: Lamar Jackson, Baltimore; Jared Goff, Detroit; Philip Rivers, Indianapolis
NFC outlook
Matchups based on current standings
Bye: No. 1 L.A. Rams (11-3)
Rams’ final three: at Seattle (11-3), at Atlanta (5-9), vs. Arizona (3-11)
Rams won a 21-19 nail-biter in first meeting with Seahawks, can establish NFC West superiority.
No. 7 Green Bay (9-4-1) at No. 2 Chicago (10-4)
Packers’ final three: Saturday at Chicago (10-4), vs. Baltimore (7-7), at Minnesota (6-8)
Packers and Bears flipped playoff spots last week but Green Bay lost bigger. Parsons done for the year.
Bears’ final three: Saturday vs. Green Bay (9-4-1) at 49ers (10-4), vs. Detroit (8-6)
Look out below? Chicago could lose every one of these games.
No. 6 49ers (10-4) at No. 3 Philadelphia (9-5)
49ers’ final three: Monday at Indianapolis (8-6), vs. Chicago (10-4), vs. Seattle (11-3)
Niners will be in the playoffs. Only question is whether they can move up to No. 1.
Eagles’ final three: at Washington (3-11), at Buffalo (10-4), vs. Washington (3-11)
Maybe it wouldn’t be awful for 49ers to open against the fading Eagles.
No. 5 Seattle (11-3) at No. 4 Tampa Bay (7-7)
Seahawks’ final three: vs. L.A. Rams (11-3), at Carolina (7-7), at 49ers (10-4)
The 12th man will be roaring Thursday night in Seattle against the Rams.
Bucs’ final three: at Carolina (7-7), at Miami (6-8) vs. Carolina (7-7)
If Tampa Bay can’t close out the NFC South against this trio they’re subject to (and deserving) of ridicule.
STILL ALIVE
No. 8 Detroit (8-6): Lions are 1-3 against the NFC North and have two more to go.
Lions’ final three: vs. Pittsburgh (8-6), at Minnesota (6-8), at Chicago (10-4)
No. 9 Carolina Panthers (7-7): Beat the Rams, then stumbled against the 2-11 Saints. Good luck with that.
Panthers’ final three: vs. Tampa Bay (7-7), vs. Seattle (10-3), at Tampa Bay (7-7)
No. 10 Dallas (6-7-1): A pipe dream to represent the NFC in Super Bowl LX with a 3-6-1 conference record.
Cowboys final three: vs. L.A. Chargers (9-4), at Washington (3-10), at N.Y. Giants (2-11)
AFC outlook
Bye: No. 1 Denver (12-2)
Broncos’ final three: vs. Jacksonville (10-4), at Kansas City (6-8), vs. L.A. Chargers (10-4)
Dream scenario? Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga start against the 49ers in Super Bowl LX.
No. 7 Houston (9-5) vs. No. 2 New England (11-3)
Texans’ final three: vs. Las Vegas (2-12), at L.A. Chargers (10-4), at Indianapolis (8-6)
Over/under on Raiders first downs against Houston’s defense? How about 6. And that may be high.
Patriots’ final three: at Baltimore (7-7), at N.Y. Jets (3-11), vs. Miami (6-8)
How New England fares against Ravens will give a clue as to their post-season viability.
No. 6 Buffalo (10-4) at No. 3 Jacksonville (10-4)
Bills’ final three: at Cleveland (3-10), vs. Philadelphia (8-5), vs. N.Y. Jets (3-10)
Nemesis Chiefs removed from the picture before Buffalo’s playoff run.
Jaguars’ final three: at Denver (12-2), at Indianapolis (8-6), vs. Tennessee (2-12)
Even if it doesn’t win, Jacksonville needs to at least go toe-to-toe with Broncos to prove legitimacy.
No. 5 L.A. Chargers (10-4) at No. 4 Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6)
Chargers’ final three: at Dallas (6-7-1), vs. Houston (9-5), at Denver (12-2)
Easy to envision Harbaugh and Co. falling out of home wild card opener against this slate.
Steelers’ final three: at Detroit (8-6), at Cleveland (3-11), vs. Baltimore (7-7)
Road win for the Steelers and Aaron Rodgers against desperate Lions can win over some skeptics.
Still alive
8. Indianapolis (8-6): Philip Rivers looked his age in competitive loss to Seattle.
Colts’ final three: Monday vs. 49ers (10-4), vs. Jacksonville (10-4), at Houston (9-5)
9. Baltimore Ravens (7-7): Hard to imagine Ravens reaching 10 wins with these three on the schedule.
Ravens’ final three: vs. New England (12-2), at Green Bay (9-4-1), at Pittsburgh (8-6)
