California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s idea to fight Texas’s overtly partisan Republican congressional redistricting plan with a partisan Democratic response may sound good to some in theory but fall short in reality.
Whereas the Texas state legislature is empowered to carve new congressional district lines, California carries out redistricting via an independent state commission which is much less partisan.
That difference is crucial inasmuch as the only way for California to change its redistricting process is for the state’s voters to approve a Newsom-proposed and state legislature-produced ballot proposition to temporarily allow the California legislature to redistrict here.
If passed, California’s new maps could provide five new potential Democratic seats to match five Republican seats in Texas, thereby keeping the totals in the House of Representatives with a slim Republican majority. The showdown is set for November 4, but the outcome may fall short of proponents’ hopes.
Three factors suggest that the redistricting advocates may have their hands full: a potential weak voter turnout, a galvanized Republican opposition and Democratic voter fatigue.
Voter turnout is often a predictor of election results. Commonly, the higher the turnout, the better Democrats do.
But the coming election on November 4, is an off-year election when neither a presidential nor gubernatorial race heads the ballot.
Because there is no major race, turnout is likely to be very low.
Past California election data make the point.
According to the California Secretary of State’s office, in 2009, the last statewide special election, voter turnout was an anemic 28.4%, compared with 79.4% in the 2008 presidential race and 59.6% for the 2010 governor’s race. The 2009 special election had seven different ballot proposals. The November 4, 2025 election has only one. Given the state’s voter history, there is every reason to expect that turnout will be low and that may contribute to failure of the ballot proposition to carry.
Regarding the second concern, a galvanized Republican opposition, data here also suggest problems for the proposition’s supporters. Over the past three presidential elections, California voters have increased their support for Donald Trump. In 2016, Trump received 31.6% of the state’s vote; in 2020, 34.3%; and in 2024, 38.3%.
The state’s voter registration data may not show much of a change, but clearly there is a trend of growing Republican strength in the state.
Although 38.3% of the vote is nowhere near a majority, in a low turnout Republicans over-perform while Democrats under-perform.
The third concern focuses on voter fatigue.
Again, we turn to voter turnout data which in 2024 showed distinct differences between Democrats and Republicans. According to 2024 survey conducted by the Center for Inclusive Democracy at USC, reduced voter turnout in California varied by political party. Whereas 12.5% fewer Republicans voted in the November 2024 election, 16% fewer Democrats voted. In other words, Democrats were less engaged than Republicans.
Put these signs together and we see that victory for proponents in the 2025 redistricting election may be a tall order. Recent reduced voter turnouts, Republican vote gains and diminished interest by Democrats present a potentially powerful challenge to advocates.
Early polls offer little help in predicting the outcome.
A survey by Politico finds the proposition losing 64% to 36%. On the other hand, a survey by Gavin Newsom’s pollster finds the proposition carrying by almost equally lopsided margin of 57% to 35%. How do we explain the discrepancy? The answer may come through who decides to vote. On that, the Democrats would seem to have a serious problem.
Remember the proverb about not counting chickens before they hatch?
Just because Newsom and the Democratic legislature have placed the redistricting proposition on the ballot doesn’t mean they have hatched a politically viable idea.
Passage may help Newson’s effort to gain the Democratic presidential nomination. But if it fails, Newsom may see his presidential hopes dashed.
Larry N. Gerston is political science professor emeritus at San Jose State University and the lead author of “California Politics and Government: A Practical Approach.”
